What is state failure? See my conceptualisation of state failure on the right flank below.

Friday, January 29, 2010

The AQ/T relationship (still)

I am following up on earlier posts here - the subject is worth investigating, right?
For starters today, here is a link to an absolute must-read on the fate of some ninety Arab fighters who took part in combat around Kandahar when the Americans came in. And the rather interesting developments that impact their legacy there. Why start with this? Well, just because, partly. This is an interesting story. But it also underlines the enormous respect that there is in some places, for Arab fighters, who "have come even before the Taliban" as one Kandahari man says in the video embedded in Christian Bleuer's post.
Now, what I want to do, with that added to our perspective, is to bring in a key quote from Olivier Roy and Mariam Abou Zahab, to present an example of the narrative that a revision of AQ's importance in Afghanistan should (but in my view cannot) defeat.
It comes from this book, from pages 48-49:
"The encounter between Bin Laden and the Taliban changed the rules. The Taliban entrusted Bin Laden control of the non-Pakistani militants (...) During this period Bin Laden brought the Arabs under his control and isolated them from the Afghan population. The leaders were installed in what amounted to residential complexes near Kandahar and Jalalabad, while the ordinary fighters were grouped together in cantonments in Kabul and Kunduz. At the same time a third echelon was established made up of militants from Western countries who were being trained to return home and carry out terrorist activities. A select group functioned in Afghanistan under the leadership of Abu Zubayda; this Palestinian from Gaza, born in the Saudi capital Riyadh in 1971 and holding an Egyptian passport, was a former member of Islamic Jihad and resident in Afghanistan."
Regarding the combat role of al-Qaida volunteers, they have this to say (on page 51):
"They fought bravely, as their resistance to the joint attacks of the Americans and the Northern Alliance in 2001 proved, but their separation from the population and their ignorance of the local language and society made them vulnerable and unfit for guerrilla warfare. However, their methods of combat, which were completely distinct from the Afghan tradition and included the suicide attack on Massoud on 9 September and the uprising of the prisoners of Qala-i-Jangi on 25 November 2001, demonstrated that they could overturn the traditional order."
Mention of Massoud's assassination is itself highly relevant to the subject. That was no small contribution by al-Qaida to the Taliban's campaign... Well, for the span of the entire two days until it became clear why they did this huge "favour." The favour that brought in U.S. special forces with abundant air support...
(As to the Qala-i-Jangi uprising, of course the people involved in that were not only al-Qaida volunteers of, for example, John Walker Lindh's kind. One of my sharpest memories about the uprising is from a video documentary, part of which was shot before the uprising, in which a Pakistani man looks in astonishment at the reporter, when asked of why they had surrendered, repeatedly saying "No. We not surrender...")
Roy and Abou Zahab then go on to describe also the key link that developed between the Taliban's and al-Qaida's top leadership, with the latter increasingly influencing the former, and how this was reflected in the increasing radicalisation of the Taliban's policies, manifesting for example in the eventual decision to destroy the Buddha statues in Bamiyan (see page 52). This is something that Roy Gutman, with his archival and interview-based research, also elaborates on in detail, in his book How we missed the story. I may still get back to this issue later on. On page 58 of Roy and Abou Zahab's book there is one more sentence I would quote here: "(on the top level which is implied here - P.M.) the transnational links between the Pakistani Islamists and the Taliban and al-Qaida do not appear to have an organisational base. In reality everything rests on personal connections, the connections of the madrasas, and chance meetings in training camps and community of interest." Yes, that doesn't sound like love.
As to the exact chain of command (anything resembling that) in this pseudo-organisation, Vahid Brown directed my attention to a discussion here, where many key individuals are named in connection with the Ansar/55th brigade. For a starter, for those who research this, here are the combatant status review documents regarding these individuals from the NYT's Guantanamo Docket.
Al-Atabi fought till captured by Dostum's forces (Dostum's Uzbeks weren't fighting an Uzbek civil war with Ansars made up only of IMU fighters as one could mistakenly deduce from certain sources*). Abdul Rahman Uthman Ahmed was another fighter who ended up surrendering to Dostum's forces. Just like al-Zahrani, too, who is alleged to have seen combat earlier on at "the Bilal Position," with what presumably was "the Bilal unit" as such - this could as well be a hint regarding the so-called brigade's organisation (ironically, it seems to have mirrored the SFs' embed system in 2001).
Seeming to confirm just this, I have dug up this article on the 55th brigade from the past. An article in Time Magazine, in 2001, soberly describes the unit not as one that would have been organised according to a Euro-centric conception of what a "brigade" is:
"Despite the name, the 55th isn't a brigade in the traditional sense. Rather than deploying as one unit backed up by a range of artillery, members fan out in small groups to help reinforce their Afghan brothers, often taking the forward positions. By threat or persuasion, the 55th tries to instill its sense of fearlessness, and discipline, in the Afghan rank-and-file--and goes so far as to shoot those daring to retreat. Even among all the notorious players in Afghanistan, the brigade enjoys a particularly brutal reputation for butchering opposition forces."
Finally, here is this Jamestown piece by Brian Glyn Williams which mentions the brigade as the International Islamic Brigade. Now that is a better name for this unit from every stakeholders' perspective (I was wondering about a (geo)politically correct name like this in a comment to my previous post on the issue). How many times one can actually find it mentioned in the discourse of those concerned, in retrospect, should also be interesting for research (though I don't think one will find this used with anything like consistency, and Ansars is still the most likely hit in my view). Anyway here is the relevant bit of the article: "Afghan watchers were quite familiar with the Taliban's increasing reliance on the al Qaeda's "International Islamic Brigade" (that is, the 055 Brigade, a shock unit made up of Uzbek extremists from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Arab jihadis, and Pakistani militants)."
* Leah Farrall writes in a post on her blog: "I asked him (Abu Walid al-Masri - P.M.) about the foreign mujahideen stationed in Kabul under the authority of the IMU (who are often mistakenly called the 055 brigade and labelled an al Qaeda strike force)."

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Back to Vahid Brown and the al-Qaida/Taliban relationship

Vahid Brown commented on a post here yesterday. I reacted, he reacted, and at one point he said there never was an 055 brigade or a 55th Arab Brigade among the Taliban's forces, this is a myth, and the Taliban never needed al-Qaida or even Arab fighters all that much. This is quite revolutionary to me, I must say, so I need to ask if this is fair enough for an interpretation of what he said? No, it can still be fairer. I will paste the relevant part of Brown's comment here:
"There was no 055 Brigade - this is a totally unsubstantiated myth. Multiple insider primary sources from both the Taliban and the foreign jihadi side confirm that Bin Ladin had no interest in sending his followers to the Taliban's front lines. The large numbers of Arab muj volunteers there were independent of Bin Ladin and were not members of al-Qa'ida."
This fundamentally contradicts with the view held by many sources. And if you ask me, I for one also think it is wrong.
Now, many sources can be quoted here. But firstly let's just go for a source that I think has the chance to clarify a lot of things. And then for some more quotes, for further elaboration. And then for some finishing comments. And then it's over to everyone else who wants a piece of the action and has something to offer for further clarification.
Huh. Deep breath. So here is the first quote, over to John Walker Lindh:

"WALKER: The Taliban have suffered much in the army, and they have the Afghans, and they have the non-Afghans. I was with the separate branch of the non-Afghans.
PELTON: And what is the non-Afghani branch called?
WALKER: It's called Ansar. It means the helpers.
PELTON: Is that the same as the 055 brigade and the...
WALKER: I'm not familiar with that.

PELTON: That's the term -- I was with the Taliban in 1995, and they were explaining, they had the 055 brigade, and then the...
WALKER: It has -- they have a number name. I don't remember the number."

Might it have been that for the simple organisation of this battlefield formation, all its foot soldiers were really required to know is they were Ansars? Would they have needed to believe that they were also a "55th Arab Brigade" of a larger organisation, which, hey, sounds just like being subservient to a national army, which is, like, possibly blasphemous in light of what God Almighty might expect from the umma, in certain interpretations?
Here is a quote from Brian Glyn Williams then, to shed more light on the use of the term Ansars, from his defence of Salim Ahmed Hamdan, "bin Laden's (Yemeni) driver" (quoting pages 6-7):
"These fighters formed an elite Al Qaeda support army for the Taliban known as the 055 Brigade, or more colloquially as the Ansars. This unit had thousands of Egyptians, Yemenis, Uzbeks, Uighurs, Saudis, Algerians, Sudanese, and even one American named Johnny Walker Lindh (the socalled “American Taliban”) in its ranks.
The 055 Brigade was deployed primarily against Northern Alliance opposition in north-eastern Afghanistan. There its soldiers fought under a black banner known as the rayah. They were armed with light artillery, outdated Soviet T-62 tanks, multiple rocket launcher systems, and light infantry weapons (AK-47s and -74s, PK machine guns, RPG-7s etc). The Taliban prisoners told me that the foreign fighters had better weapons, better training and discipline (many had served in the armies of the home countries), and even uniforms (of a sort, this was Afghanistan after all). Their uniforms consisted of black turbans or Arab keffiyeh headscarves, camouflage jackets and pants, and Western style boots or sneakers (a rarity in Afghanistan where men wore robe-like shalwar kameez and sandals). They also had a well organized command structure.
The 055 fighters were in a class of their own in Afghanistan and were known as the cutting edge of the Taliban sword. My Uzbek Northern Alliance hosts told me of numerous occasions when the Ansars stormed their positions as shock troops for the Taliban. When the US invaded, these foreign foot-soldiers were deployed against Coalition forces."
Seems like "Ansar" was the term that the other side, the Northern Alliance fighters, in this case Dostum's fighters came to use, too.
The Taliban's use of the Ansars only grew over time. Roy Gutman covers, in his book, How we missed the story, quite well how the Taliban became more and more dependent. Bin Laden's former body guard, Abu Jandal is quoted on page 98 as having said that "The blood of the Arabs and the Afghans was spilled at the Afghan fronts and this was an important factor in strengthening the relationship and bolstering links between the Al-Qaeda Organization and the Taliban Movement and their leaderships." Which is part of the reason why people like Phyllis Oakley were referring to Afghanistan by 1999 as a "hijacked" state (see p. 161).
And it was more than just the men that the Taliban could use. Everyone seems fixated on the Ansars/55'ers, whoever, but hey, money flow was a major concern in those days (also). Abdul Salam Zaeef, in his book, doesn't describe the Taliban defence ministry's working budget as exactly huge; he says it was insufficient (on page 85 he says the weekly budget in September 1998 was 300,000 dollars). Which is why many of their men were fighting in sandals, by the way. The presence of bin Laden's men meant access to rather generous donations which they couldn't have done without. Like I said in a comment myself yesterday, in the 1990s combat environment, or political economy, of Afghanistan, even the relatively modest Stinger buyback program was an injection of critical resources to many, earlier on. Which is why people in the CIA referred to Afghanistan by 1998 as a "terrorist-sponsored state" (p. 164. in Gutman's book).
As to post-9/11, the Arab fighters by that stage were absolutely vital for the Taliban. Here is a quote from the Pentagon military historians' volume, A Different Kind of War. It is from the chapter Collapse of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan, p. 80.
"Of the foreign troops, those associated with al-Qaida had received the best training and displayed the most zeal in combat against Coalition and NA forces. Stephen Biddle, an analyst at the US Army Strategic Studies Institute, has pointed out that the Taliban recognized the superiority of the foreign elements and relied greatly on them in the fall of 2001."
So. The circle has come full. That's where/when Lindh was captured.
Getting back to yesterday's post of mine, this wasn't "al-Qaida being subservient to the Taliban." No strawman ever thought that. It was strategic cooperation. It was a deal. D-E-A-L. Ansars at the local front, bases for the global front. Pretty simple, right? (I think it's more simple than to assume that all those exotic creatures on Pandora are mystically bound by cultural rules, and matters of survival and strategy do not affect their behaviour all that much.)
And telling us that HuJI and other "Kashmiris," other Pakistanis, the IMU and so many others were also involved in this mix is not new - and this mix is something that continues to this day. Neither is this something that would contradict the notion that bin Laden was very important, even if we do not up till today understand exactly how, in every aspect.
So what I would want to see more from people like Vahid Brown is to become better at sourcing (like, more extensively and critically addressing the exact profile of some of the people they extensively quote), to face some basic facts (e.g. that discourse analysis will be skewed in a generally information-starved environment, when there is much motivation on the part of those quoted to deceive, much potential also to have been manipulated themselves, while many others who should have a say are... well... kind of illiterate you know?); and to open more towards political economy/strategic interpretations of events, to address their abstract logic better, also. Otherwise, I am ready to accept their truly precious opinion when I see it sufficiently backed up. I am generally open to reinterpretations, and what I described above is just the method by the use of which people with good language skills can find as opposed to make a difference.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Bin Laden's bay'a that wasn't

I do not mean to be offensive here, but I really needed to stop reading the conclusion of Vahid Brown's article about how Abu Walid al-Masri's story of Osama bin Laden's avoidance of a bay'a to mullah Omar should be interpreted. In disbelief. That Brown seriously put down what he did.
Quote:
"The ambiguity of Bin Ladin’s bay`a challenges the notion that al-Qa`ida is, or ever was, subservient to the aims and methods of the Afghan Taliban."
There are problems later on as well, with Brown's conception of Pakistan, but this already is sufficient to pause and contemplate. The notion after 9/11 certainly wasn't that al-Qaida, an organisation that was willing to blow stuff up around the globe, was hijacked by the Taliban with the latters' narrow focus on defeating the remaining Northern Alliance.
Of the latter goal of the Taliban, Abu Walid al-Masri had this to say, by the way, and this is quoted by Brown himself: the Taliban could not effectively oppose Osama bin Laden's plans as long as they "remained unable to control the remaining territory held by the northern resistance." * (correction: see comments below)
Anyway, what follows from all this? That all or nothing of Afghanistan shall be ruled by the Taliban, from a U.S. national security perspective? Or from a "counterterrorism community" perspective?

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Twitting...

As those who visited this blog during the day might have already seen, I am now twitting, (or tweeting or twittering, whatever). With my posts via this (for me) new medium, I might actually widen my coverage of Afghanistan and state-failure-related global developments, and do this in a new form that can always be inspiring. In other words, this is fun, and for the same reasons that others have named (in some cases long) before me.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

A true talib, and guardians and guards of vicious circles of mutual harm

A review of Abdul Salam Zaeef’s book, My life with the Taliban (Hurts and Co., London, 2010; eds.: Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn)

Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef (pictured with an iPhone, talking to the Associated Press, to the right; photo by Rafiq Maqbool, AP, February 25, 2009) was the Taliban’s ambassador to Pakistan and the Afghan Emirate’s face to the world in 2000-2001. The one to complain to, the one to demand from, the one to lecture, the one to be lectured by in return, and occasionally the one to try and make a deal with. He was also one of the early organisers of the movement of the taliban in 1994; one who put his life at risk again, in a dire moment of Kandahar's history, teaming up with old comrades from the jihad of the 1980s, to radically transform the situation in their land for the better. Now he tells us the story of his life with the mediation of editors and translators of his personal account, Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn.

Mullah Zaeef is good with words, and the editors have also done a fine job. There is a vast amount of research behind them and they supply the reader with an abundance of additional information. But the subject material needed no particular enhancement to merit interest to start with, either.

Based on mullah Zaeef's background as mullah come diplomat, one could expect two things from him by default. Firstly, that in his book, My life with the Taliban, he would clearly assert that he is not a moderate talib as such but simply a true talib, a “seeker.” The title of the book pretty much makes that clear, right? Secondly, one could also expect that he would demonstrate more pragmatism in his argumentation than many others in his movement, having been a diplomat. He might have had it in him before, or he might have learned it, or some of it, on the job. In any case, he might legitimately be expected to have a significantly less parochial outlook than some of his former comrades (perhaps an outlook not parochial at all). And more readiness for a dialogue; why else would he bother to write a book as a call for peace and reconciliation? Last year he even accomplished the hajj (something the reader may learn from the useful background material included in the book, prepared by Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn).

Reading mullah Zaeef’s account does leave a mixed impression in the reader, and the end result may fall short of what some would wishfully anticipate from him – Barnett Rubin notes essentially the same in his brief but excellent foreword to the book. This of course should not make mullah Zaeef's account uninteresting. To the contrary! It is a narrative that is important addition to assessing the role of all those involved in it.

Assessing Mullah Zaeef

It is a true talib’s voice we can hear here. He is not playing the tune of someone who is just a step away from transforming into one of “us” (whatever that means). He is not about to shed his identity as a talib, or his deep respect for mullah Omar, as a result of using his iPhone or one more good argument in the name of holy good governance, peace be upon its name. But why should he? An awkward answer to that question could be that he would be better off as a result, because the first instinct of a distant reader, like the one whose comments you are reading, may be to pounce on real or assumed inconsistencies and omissions in his narrative, taking him on as though he would still be the Taliban's face to the world, writing the official history of the Taliban. He is not, of course: he is no longer an official face of the Taliban, and he is not writing its official history, either. Clearly, he should be spared of some of the verbal combat. Trying to get him to account for crimes of comrades and crimes of the friends of those comrades could constitute a symbolic repetition of his earlier lawless treatment in Bagram and Guantanamo; just as seeing a shameless attempt at historical revision in his "frustrating silences" would (borrowing Barnett Rubin's expression).

Still, at first, just that sort of enumeration of possible complaints is about to follow here - but to rub less salt in the wound(s), throughout some caveats shall be highlighted as well, before a substantial debate might make one reconsider even more of the critical observations outlined below. Proceeding like this could perhaps be justified as not shying away from addressing the seemingly obvious points of criticism. Here I am, setting up a strawman, talking.

To start with, there are very rigid aspects to mullah Zaeef's thinking. Among the things that one may find spectacularly objectionable, Mullah Zaeef is a man who, in his own retelling, rather impatiently lectured a Japanese delegation on one occasion, however arrogant or ignorant or unaware of certain sensitivities this delegation may have been, about how Buddhism, someone else’s religion, someone else’s path to a virtuous life, was “void” and “without any basis” (p. 127). Elsewhere he says that “tolerance is the most necessary quality on earth; it can make the world into one home” (p. 224), but in light of what he said before, it may seem like what he really means by this is that the Taliban’s faithful intolerance of deviations should have been uncritically tolerated by others at least in the Taliban’s own, appropriated corner of the world.

Another seemingly telling illustration of his thinking could be mullah Zaeef’s attitude towards the ISI, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence. That attitude is also remarkable for some potentially telling inconsistency. In general, Mullah Zaeef derides the ISI for its constant meddling in Afghanistan’s affairs, and even likens it to a cancer spreading, one that eats you or may even spit you out. Yet he notes, with what appears to have been approval in the given context, how General Mahmud Ahmed, the head of ISI, referred to Pakistan’s interior minister Moinuddin Haider as a “silly donkey” once, because of the latter’s attempt to argue in the defence of the Buddha statues in Bamiyan and because of his attempt to warn the Taliban of the threat of a future American attack “over the Osama issue” (p. 125). Mullah Zaeef finds it fitting that both Mahmud Ahmed, just back at the time from Washington where he had been staying in the morning of 9/11, and the legendary old Afghan hand „Colonel Imam,” shed tears, on separate occasions, over the fate of the Afghan Emirate (see pp. 148 and 154). However, inconsistency of attitude towards ISI is something that ought to be viewed in a context in which, for mullah Zaeef just like to a number of other observers, there seem to be two or more different ISIs sometimes, including one that wanted very specific things from mullah Zaeef upon the fall of the regime of mullah Omar – things which he would not do (see p. 153). Having an ambiguous attitude may thus be simply the result of a reality check.

Mullah Zaeef’s more negative feelings about the ISI also stem from what he says was Pakistan’s support to the Emirate’s enemies, „even while it maintained a close relationship” with the Taliban, as he puts it. There is truth in claiming that the ISI (just like many other intelligence services) was always playing several options at the same time. For example, Hamed Karzai, generally no fan of Pakistan-the-state, either, could get along quite well for a while over on the other side of the Khyber Pass, till not long before 9/11 (on one occasion back in 1994, Karzai was allegedly beaten up by Mohammed Qasim Fahim personally, on suspicion of conspiring with Pakistani intelligence). But of course there might be a big difference between "close" and "very close" relationships, and the closeness of any particular relationship tends to change over time... Was the ISI playing all its options with the same enthusiasm?

How close (or vital) the relationship between the Taliban and the Pakistani leadership and the ISI happened to be in general is probably something that mullah Zaeef could not exactly assess, even if he wanted to. One might assume this in light of how his appointment to the post of Ambassador to Pakistan occurred (see p. 102). The innermost workings of the Taliban regime were at times apparently unfathomable even to someone like mullah Zaeef (as unfathomable as the interagency process in Washington can be for an observer). But altogether the lack of truly sufficient explanation regarding how the Taliban movement could expand so fast beyond its original area is striking to such a degree one may be forgiven for thinking that there must have been more external assistance in the process than what mullah Zaeef was prepared to discuss. Equally telling is the absence of a reasonable narrative of how the Taliban could sustain their operations after major losses in northern Afghanistan. Telling a detailed account of that campaign was no aim of the author, but still this is something that people could easily call for.

Other things missing from mullah Zaeef’s narrative, things that are likely to be missed by some future readers, also include the assassination of Ahmed Shah Massoud on September 9, 2001. It would be interesting to know how he felt when he learned of what had happened. Did he feel it did not bode well, at the time? Or were his first impressions different? But this sort of pondering is only relevant if mullah Zaeef learned of the assassination before September 11, and so far one can only speculate that this may have been the case.

There are yet more possibly conscious omissions, too. Women, Hazaras and others are not treated the way they were, in mullah Zaeef’s narrative. Although, of course, mullah Zaeef did not personally affect the general treatment of women, and he had no personal involvement in the rather "enemy-centric" campaign in the Hazara areas (to use a military euphemism fashionable in Western discourse nowadays).

Compared to a lack of elaboration on a number of relevant issues, his repeatedly voiced, albeit cautious and unaccusing, wish for a careful investigation by the United States into what happened on 9/11 seems naïve. If many among the Taliban really believed that bin Laden’s organisation was not capable and willing to prepare and carry out the 9/11 attacks, or even the East African embassy bombings, regarding which doubts are also voiced in the book, only another major, alleged miscalculation by mullah Omar can match this in terms of the enormity of unforeseen consequences: namely that mullah Omar might have believed there was less than 10 percent of a chance that the U.S. might carry through with its threats against the Emirate.

Having listed these real or presumed inconsistencies in mullah Zaeef’s account and inevitably alienating from his narrative to a degree (just like one should from anyone’s narrative, in any case), it could also be argued that men like mullah Zaeef are among the potentially least harmful prospective social leaders in Greater Kandahar's area, the following two counter-factual conditions permitting (this will be complicated but I will try to put this into exact terms): firstly, if Western-led state-building can really only be the botched peace-building in-name-only, or the “quagmire-building,” that it can seem to be, and/or if one assumes that the situation could and would be quickly spoiled from Pakistani sources in any case; secondly, if in the absence of a committed Western-led state-building effort one could only have the devastating feuding of the militias (the "men with the guns," the topakiyaan) that Kandaharis were witnesses to in the early 1990s... Which brings us to the almost obligatory, inconclusive rambling about the Taliban's prospects, others' prospects with the Taliban in mind, and prospects without the Taliban.

Assessing the taliban, the neo-Taliban, and the topakiyaan

If we accept the above counter-factuals, the hypothesis could be that there would be an inevitable role for taliban like mullah Zaeef in southern Afghanistan. (Along with the ulema, perhaps... Notably, many of the Kandahari Ulemaa Shura's members were assassinated by insurgents since 2001 - around 24 of about 150 of them by one count). Religious sources of authority may seem vital as the glue that could hold society together; to provide social cohesion amongst a well-armed, fractured populace in a resource-scarce environment – to provide this cohesion in the form of an Islamic collective, transcending tribal and other fault-lines and keeping in check a moral vacuum from overtaking even a minimal semblance of order in (dys)functioning, neopatrimonial state institutions.

An important question, if I may ask, is: would the taliban necessarily have to rule themselves, in order to play this role, provided they could, in reality, take over power again? Would this role need to be formalised, normally? Is the legitimacy of a rural Kandahari, Sunni version of a broader wilayat-e faqih automatically established, by the argumentation above, over all parts of Afghanistan that before 2001 used to be controlled (to varying degrees) by the Taliban? This is why the Taliban's uneven but country-wide spread is likely to be a major complication in resolving the conflict with them. Should there be such a deal, how would the Taliban extricate themselves from the politics outside their core areas? Could they do so? Would they be willing to do so?

The early organising of the Taliban in 1994 and the first checkpoint battles, such as the one with Daru Khan’s ragtag forces, were of monumental importance. That was the historical moment when the would-be honest Islamic mediators of disputes and impartial Islamic judges of crimes turned into power-brokers. As such, they became party to conflicts. They no longer played the role of smootheners of justice, peace-makers or mere servants to the cause of a wider jihad. They became stokers of conflict, exploiters of conflict, and makers of conflict themselves. From the sphere of religious morality they stepped into the ugly Machiavellian world called power politics. It was a moment that transformed their cause fundamentally and perhaps irreversibly, and it was all of the legacy of this transformation and its aftermath that mullah Zaeef was unjustly called on to personally account for, above.

As to today’s movement, the neo-Taliban, as some refer to them, the picture is even more complex. Some NATO sources apparently refer with regularity to how the “small t” taliban mingle among the ranks of the “big T” (neo-)Taliban. Well, at least in a sense, sort of. Thomas Rid writes in The Wilson Quarterly:
‘coalition soldiers see (…) a fissure between what they call “big T” Taliban and “small t” Taliban. The “big T” ideologues fight for more global spiritual or political reasons; the “little t” opportunists fight for power, for money, or just to survive, to hedge their bets.’
While this statement does capture something important, it is also, inevitably, a very distorting way of using the terms “taliban” and “Taliban.” There is no differentiation akin to this in for example mullah Zaeef’s or other Afghans' mind. But back in the 1980s, and based on mullah Zaeef's account, there was conscious self-differentiation from the rest of the mujahedeen in the taliban fronts. The sad irony of this is that in moral terms, the pettier mujahedeen of the 1980s, of whom the taliban clearly stood apart, may still have been, possibly, a class above some of the more distant fellow travellers of even the Taliban insurgency nowadays, after the past decades of devastation and breakdown of basic order and its impact on society. Alluded to here are some of the very many fighters who significantly contributed to the growth of the insurgency, especially outside its core areas, joining it as part-timers in some cases, because of the lack of better opportunities, and/or because of grievances suffered from corrupt institutions and predatory strongmen (and the militiamen of these strongmen, the "topakiyaan" of today, occasionally in ANP uniform, at other times not). To point out some truly extreme examples, one even hears of supposedly “taliban” commanders in some areas with a liking for video messages of dancing boys sent around on mobile phones (a phenomenon thought to be less exceptional among the ranks of strongmen's militias, bandits or, say, corrupt auxiliary police units; while assumed almost beyond plausible, by definition, among the ranks of people referring to themselves as "taliban;" disapproval of the phenomenon could even be read out of rule no. 19 in the Taliban's earlier book of rules, or laheya). Elsewhere, on some occasions in the past, coalition soldiers reported having found syringes in insurgents’ deserted firing positions (signs of heroin abuse that is haraam, banned; of course this, again, cannot be said to be a typical experience with regards to the insurgents). Other, actually widespread signs of major change include the rampant use of IEDs and suicide bombings as a tactic (although frequently with foreign fighters' participation in the case of suicide attacks), and the use of DVD recordings and well-illustrated on-line publications in promoting the insurgency's cause. The Taliban are now flexible enough to co-opt, and thus grow by the inclusion of, even some former opponents of theirs. Meanwhile, across the border in Pakistan, the Taliban "brand" took on a life of its own...

But in fact the diversity of the insurgents' background may breed some hope at the same time as at least some observers opine - of course not with the previous extreme examples in mind. That listening to music and other traditional entertainments are now more tolerated within the Taliban's ranks may suggest that they might have become less rigidly ideological and generally more ready for pragmatic compromises, required in the world of politics. But the terror tactics employed against real and symbolic enemies of the movement still make caution recommended in forming such predictions about their potential future character, even if they may have entered a "softening-up" phase. The precarious havens they have in Pakistan where they likely need to watch out for a number of actors' plots and counter-plots all the time, may teach a lot of lessons about survival but not necessarily in more sober, pragmatic governance.

The core Taliban movement is very much there, and this Quetta Shura Taliban would certainly have some legacy of strange camaraderie to deal with, should they come to power again in some form. With the execution of some of the more unreliable commanders acting in their name, as well as with rotation of their commanders from province to province and from district to district, they have in fact always been working on this in their own way. Thus the above observations are certainly not to suggest that overall the Quetta Shura has fundamental authority problems these days in controlling the strategic shape and direction of the southern insurgency. It can be demonstrated, related to a number of issues, that theirs can and does work as a centralised movement. And it provides guidance to other groups as well. Insurgent factions even as far from the south as in the Korengal valley, in Kunar province, are ready to declare acceptance of mullah Omar as Amir ul-Mu'mineen (leader of the faithful); although an observer may reserve some scepticism and assume that such declarations of allegiance could as well be patronage-inspired responses to efforts at building credibility for the Quetta Shura, at a time when deal-making with it is certainly on the agenda. As an effective test of the respect that mullah Omar has, however, his letters are reportedly powerful enough messages to get commanders in most areas, where the Taliban are active, to allow polio vaccination rounds to go ahead. The movement also fares remarkably well in managing revenue flows that stem at the grassroots level, from various sources, avoiding the corruption and the fragmentation often seen in other conflicts where grassroots commanders have potentially autonomous revenue streams.

Thus we could assume that ultimately the Taliban would be able to gain full, practical control of their movement as well as of what is happening in its name, reigning it in, at least in an area around Kandahar, especially in rural Kandahar, where in many places they are providing the actually functioning justice system. Although exactly how much (if more than a minority) of the local population would be really, voluntarily receptive of that is up to anyone to guess, in the absence of truly reliable polls. Regardless, we can also assume that the West would be neither willing nor capable of fighting endlessly to try to annul the Taliban’s chances of any kind of comeback, however, should the possibility not clearly emerge on the horizon soon, as a result of the push effect that the surge inevitably exerts on the insurgents. The question then is whether the Taliban would truly be able to operate on their own, without backing from the sort of sources that they relied on in the past, thus opening up Afghan matters to much destructive foreign influence. Influence that serves the agendas of those whose key interest in Afghanistan is exactly the opposite of letting Afghans sort it out for themselves in a sustainable manner; agendas of those whose agenda itself might draw in the intervention of other parties.

This is crucial, since latently, in the discourse about Afghanistan, one can often sense the influence of the concept of a potential grand, Faustian bargain that could, in the view of some, be struck with the Taliban. A deal, that the West could perhaps tolerate Taliban rule as a least bad option from a human rights perspective in parts of southern Afghanistan that are usually not specified; in return for which the Taliban would need to exercise positive sovereignty, or effective authority, in these areas, and credibly commit to not letting anyone undermine others’ security from their territory. Some go as far as suggesting that official recognition may need to be extended as part of this deal to the Taliban who could then either be part of the Internationally Recognised Government of Afghanistan, or, at the extreme, such a government themselves. (It is one of mullah Zaeef’s principal complaints by the way that the West made a major mistake in only dealing with the Emirate through Islamabad). But it remains to be seen what the Taliban would content with and when (after all "foreign troops" have already left?) – and any grand compromise could still be spoiled by others not willing to be bound by it.

Assessing America and the West

One also needs to address issues of trust with regards to the West, and definitely not only with the Taliban in mind; although the Taliban's perspective could also be telling illustration of this. Western decision-makers did not care so much about the plight of Kabul or Kandahar in the 1990s, at least compared to how important the country, the plight of the Afghan people, and the cause of the mujahedeen may have seemed to them on the basis of their, or their predecessors,’ approach earlier on. Handing over Osama bin Laden, or even the presenting of truly decisive evidence in a court against him (i.e. against a spiritual and covert financial supporter of terrorism) would have been much more difficult than many diplomats and officials were ready to admit when they demanded bin Laden’s extradition from the Taliban, who were in the end ousted from power because of this (and not because of the dreadful treatment of women, Hazaras or anyone else). The West’s approach to the issue of opium production was generally no less ingenuine, either, than that of the Taliban (tacit encouragement during the jihad, lobbying the Taliban for a ban post-1994, then intermittently tacit ignorance and calls for stepped-up eradication of even ordinary farmers' crops post-2001; it was, by intention at least, a strategic approach in other words).

At the same time, mullah Zaeef’s complaint that the U.S. or Great Britain did not help al-hajji mullah Mohammad Rabbani when he needed medical treatment for cancer will not really strike a chord in most of the Western readership (p. 129). Many injustices were committed against Afghanistan in its history but this is not one of them; although it may very well be the case that the opportunity to gain some trust and goodwill from the Taliban by providing just this sort of assistance was underestimated on the occasion.

Connected to this, one in fact also finds it difficult to understand how a former diplomatic representative of the aspiring-to-be sovereign Afghan Emirate, regularly and genuinely stressing in his discourse the importance of independence for Afghanistan, feels no contradiction between his preference of independence and what he mentions as senior Taliban leaders’ habit of regularly going for medical treatment to Pakistan – or, when the treatment was required for more severe problems, say for Ministry of Defence officials, to the supposedly decadent West (see p. 111). Such dependencies work against independence... And nor does mullah Zaeef feel there to be a contradiction, apparently, between the idea of national resistance against occupation and how thousands of Arab and other fighters poured in for the combat post-2001, in his own account (p. 155). It is not difficult at all to understand why and how he might see welcome warriors of justice in these Arab and other volunteers, faced with, mind you, a whole coalition of opponents. But their activity is not the basis of a really national sort of resistance, either; certainly no more than the Taliban are "anti-Afghan" forces, as in the coalition's rhetoric. Would one be terribly wrong to imagine that in fact many of the foreign fighters themselves would find simply outrageous or at least uninspiring the idea that they are involved in a national sort of war in Afghanistan? Foreign fighters could refer here to both ISAF troops and non-Afghan Pakistanis and Arabs, by the way...

But while all the Pakistani and Arab volunteers render it implausible to consider the new Taliban campaign as a national resistance war, what is nowadays also talked of as Obama’s war is in fact more Bush’s or America’s war as such. It resembled, in some of its early aspects, more a targeted revenge campaign and a round of meant-to-be preventive violence (a "signal" as some refer to it) than peace-building or state-building of any kind, and this needs to be remembered. By its legacy, it is thus a war of the Bagram prison guard who took the Qur’an from a prisoner in front of mullah Zaeef’s eyes, to urinate on it. It is by the same token the war of the military barber who slapped mullah Zaeef for complaining about being force-shaved. It is the war of all those who were happy to use the cover of a belief in their own righteousness to relate to human beings in a fundamentally inhumane way, as many of the guards in places such as Bagram or Guantanamo regularly did. Mullah Zaeef's book is an important document of this, being the first-hand account that it is.

And there are not only "isolated moments of inappropriateness" to bring up, on the part of the West. The troubles, in case anyone failed to notice by now, extend to the strategic level. The current Afghan war is by legacy the war of those who launched a war on terrorism making the prime enemy, Osama bin Laden, even more of a legend than what he used to be, right at the outset – allowing bin Laden a somewhat lucky but not altogether unpredictable and spectacular escape from the Tora Bora mountains. It is the war of those who gave the Taliban a new sense of transnational brotherhood by having many of them go through a common ordeal with Arab and other fighters (as well as some ordinary people from several Islamic countries) held in Guantanamo, Bagram and other detention facilities, thus convincing the Taliban and many others of the validity of some of their worst beliefs regarding distant America. It is also the war of those who could only think of setting up the primitive polity of a weak, albeit in provincial affairs quite intrusive, king (President Karzai), a pro-consul of "good global governance," so to say, faced with quarrelling princes (the members of parliament), to thus counter the Taliban’s and al-Qaida’s influence for the future.

Harsh criticism of Western efforts in Afghanistan also brings us to mullah Zaeef’s temptation to identify with America’s indigenous Indians’ plight, however, of which he writes at one point, notably when recounting some of the most desperate moments of his life, during his captivity in Guantanamo (p. 193-194). This could itself be criticised as an exaggerating and overly ideological view of what came to happen (and is happening still). In effect mullah Zaeef is likening the Taliban movement to brutally oppressed native resistance against imperialism. But one perhaps also needs to remember the Taliban’s own history with prisoners at this point. That is nothing that mullah Zaeef was personally involved in, and this shall be remembered - but still there are past events that do matter and that also need to be recounted in this context. Shi’a leader Abdul Ali Mazari’s fate, for example, after he had been captured by the Taliban. Or how Communist leader Najibullah was treated after Kabul had been taken. Or atrocities (in revenge for previous failures) in Mazar-i-Sharif. Taliban counterinsurgency tactics in Bamiyan.

Two or many more wrongs don't make a right, of course. Approaching this from a more constructive point of view, without an interest in manufacturing counternarratives or counter-counternarratives: if there is a trivial but important lesson in what mullah Zaeef and others went through in Guantanamo, it could be that people who think they can righteously cause harm to others are always dangerous. Be they revenge-minded prison guards, overzealous guardians of the true faith, or even cold-headed but ultimately short-sighted Realpolitikers.

Assessing the reviewer

On that note, this reviewer will cease talking. The reader probably ought to have stopped reading by this point, to start reading mullah Zaeef's story instead. It is a well-told story and reading it is a unique chance to inhale Afghanistan's and Afghans' history through the fabric of its narrative, every aspect of which would have been impossible to discuss even in a much more extensive review. And the Epilogue might re-arrange every preceding impression one may develop in a linear reading of the text. Just like this reviewer also had to overhaul his initial approach to it. But I shall really not give away more, or I shall be a very bad reviewer.

* * * * *

Related material on this blog:

Summary and translation of an interview by Péter Wagner with Abdul Salaam Rocketi, a former fighter of the war against the Soviets and a former member of the Taliban's government who was detained for months at Bagram, but then ran for a place in the Afghan parliament. In 2009, he was even one of the presidential candidates. Just like mullah Zaeef's family, he also hails from among the Suleiman Khel of Qalat/Zabul.

The story of the Uruzgan governorship of Abdul Hakim Munib, another former member of the Taliban government. Ghilzai Pashtun, just like mullah Zaeef and Abdul Salaam Rocketi - a son of the Ali Khel of Paktia.

A trio from southern Afghanistan. Parts of the interwoven stories of mullah Mohammed Omar, Haji Bashir Noorzai and Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

ANO fighting in Waziristan?

AQ, AQI, AQIM, AQAP, ANO... What? Wait. You mean, ANO is one of the militant groups that the U.S. is fighting these days? But the last time I checked, Abu Nidal was still dead. Somebody should tell the FBI...
Of course, that is not the most interesting angle from which one can look at this. The most interesting aspect is perhaps the ideological aspect. Abu Nidal's organisation was called Abu Nidal's organisation because it was run rather despotically by the man called Abu Nidal; but remarkably it worked with a leftist ideology and worldview. How an operative of this network ended up being killed in one of the drone strikes usually targeting al-Qaida operatives in north Waziristan, on January 9 this year, is interesting to ponder.
The Huffington Post has some key details:
"Rahim had been tried and convicted by Pakistan, but he and three suspected accomplices were apparently released in January 2008. All four were added to the FBI list late last year."
So, to recap: Palestinian Jamal Saeed Abdul Rahim who was first part of an ANO plot in Karachi, back in 1986, went on to spend 22 years in a Pakistani jail, imprisoned there supposedly for life, after he had earlier been sentenced to death, was then released in early 2008, and was then apparently killed in rather interesting company, or at least in a rather interesting location, just about two years after he had been set free.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

A counter-narrative

I am reading mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef's book, My life with the Taliban. A book by a founding member of the post-1994 Taliban movement who was the Taliban's ambassador to Pakistan in 2001. That sentence in itself could be sufficient for a blogpost perhaps. This book is a piece of history, and, unsurprisingly, a treasure trove of information for observers of Afghan matters. I am including the book cover's image here, to draw attention, by putting an end to the visual starving of those who are now curious.
As it is noted on the book's webpage, My life with the Taliban offers a counter-narrative of standard accounts of Afghanistan since 1979, plus, as it is noted in Kandahar: Portrait of a city (pp. ix-xxiv) by editors Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn, it offers not simply gap-filling but essentially it fulfills a void-filling role as to Kandahar's history, of which you could hardly read much in English before.
I will still get back to writing a more thorough review of the book, but I want to contemplate what I have to say in such a review (it is not easy at all).
As illustration of the worth of the book, I am including some examples below of what kind of new details I can add now to an earlier, sort of "OSINT version" of the Taliban's rise that I assembled at this blog back in 2007.
* * * * *
1) Pp. 21-55. The chapters in this section offer fascinating insight into the "small t" taliban's history. Into the story of the groups of madrasa students who either fought for (partly religiously defined, Kandahari) public good, so to say, or mediated and played judge in good faith in local disputes in southern Afghanistan's history, including during the 1980s' jihad. Reconciliation is something they were particularly well-positioned to do back then just as much as nowadays, given their aspiration to transcend tribal and other dividing lines and their reference to Islamic principles.
The book's narrative of the 1980s jihad offers an unconventional portrayal of the combat around Kandahar, especially in Zhari-Panjwai, where taliban groups as such may have played a far greater role than many standard accounts tell us. Often the likes of Mohammed Omar are mentioned as just fighters of Hizb-i-Islami's Khalis faction during the jihad. In fact, their "fronts," the "taliban fronts," while they were certainly supported from somewhere logistically, through HIK networks as well, probably, were autonomous from central control at least in an ideological sense (in their own, quasi-anti-ideological way). They clearly saw themselves as apart from the rest of the mujahedeen to a degree.
2) The Taliban's start is detailed in the chapter titled Taking action. Light is shed on the up-till-now rather murky sequence of events. Abdul Qudus and mullah Neda Mohammad are named as key initiators of the movement (the former was killed on the Shomali plains, fighting Massoud's forces; the latter was killed already post-2001, in a coalition raid); although I presume that at around the same time others like them were also asking around, looking to mobilise the dormant taliban networks that went partially inactive after Kandahar was seized by feuding mujahedeen militias. The latter development could take place, in Zaeef's narrative, essentially because the taliban took their eyes off the ball at the end of the jihad.
Abdul Salam Zaeef seems to have been a vital link in the early organising, based on his own narrative, and Pashmol and Sangisar (mullah Mohammed Omar's home village) were apparently the key meeting points early on. The first Taliban checkpoint was set up at Hawz-e Mudat, on the Herat-Kandahar road, and it was after defeating a neighbouring checkpoint commander, Daru Khan, that the Taliban's expansion began (bandwagoning clearly playing into this as well). If you check out Kandahar's map, you can find Hawz-e Mudat (or "Hawz-e Madad") in today's Zhari district. Zhari's shape as it is today was tailored in 2005, and so I cannot say with absolute certainty where Hawz-e-Madad fell back then. Abdul Salam Zaeef refers to this area as "Maiwand and Panjwai districts." It was from there that the Taliban set out to raid Spin Boldak and, meanwhile, gradually take over Kandahar with mullah Naqib's help...
* * * * *
Too many names? Need some explanation? I am not giving away more. Find it all in the book.
This should be enough encouragement to check out a book that you must not only have, but one that you could read a couple of times, including all the endnotes, while taking notes yourself, if you want to be knowledgeable about southern Afghanistan. Moreover, after his account of the Taliban's rise, Abdul Salam Zaeef covers the years of which his narrative becomes even more of a counter-narrative...

Thursday, January 14, 2010

A linguistic innovation on the battlefield

(From a couple of days ago.) The Washington Post quotes an anonymous Marine officer telling them:

"During the Bar Now Zad operation, the Marines have killed 20 or fewer suspected insurgents, according to one Marine officer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the operation was ongoing."

Highlighting by me. I would actually prefer this (so far unusual) wording by default.

2009: the year of spectacularly more careful application of air power?

A friend of mine posted UNAMA's latest report on civilian casualties of the conflict in Afghanistan recently, and highlighted how 2009 was the deadliest year yet for civilians in Afghanistan (since 2001, of course!).

That is certainly true and relevant, but I needed to react in a comment saying:

"It should also be noted that while civilian casualties may have risen by 14 percent, along with the significantly intensifying combat, casualties from collateral harm by coalition operations decreased by about 28 percent. In some cases air strikes were pulled while troops were in contact. In other words, mostly the insurgents were doing the killing of civilians in 2009, based on the UN's figures."


Indeed it is striking how "civilian deaths caused by the armed opposition increased by 41 per cent between 2008 and 2009 from 1,160 to 1,630" largely as a result of increased use of suicide bombings and IEDs according to the accompanying press release by UNAMA. The conflict has become much more asymmetrical in this respect, even with significantly more coalition and Afghan troops on the ground... In some cases air strikes were pulled, to conform to the new COIN guidelines, even while troops were in contact. And in a twisted way the exceptions are notable, too, such as the case of the Kunduz bombing, ordered by German troops - the incident which significantly added to the final toll and was the result of a predictably bad decision. It could be telling to deduce that from the figure to thus make coalition forces' performance look even more impressive, but unfortunately that would not make sense at all. The Kunduz case needs to be remembered and counted in any case. Anyway, the UNAMA report is there for you, me, all of us, to read.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

The positive Somali spill-over?

Having discussed, towards the end of last year, how supposedly toxic "failed states" of the international (i.e. interstate) system in fact come to absorb a lot of spill-over effects themselves, like illegal fishing for example, here is the same thing from another aspect: pirates fighting back may represent a positive effect, creating a positive externality, for others around. Kenyan fishermen are quite happy with piracy off the coast of Somalia, apparently. Quote:
"In past years, illegal commercial trawlers parked off Somalia's coast and scooped up the ocean's contents. Now, fishermen on the northern coast of neighboring Kenya say, the trawlers are not coming because of pirates.
"There is a lot of fish now, there is plenty of fish. There is more fish than people can actually use because the international fishermen have been scared away by the pirates," said Athman Seif, the director of the Malindi Marine Association."
Do note also, however, that:
"fishermen here acknowledge the horror of the attacks — they occasionally are harassed by pirates themselves."
Altogether it is a complex tale, and AP covers it well for a wire report. The illegal fishing in Somali waters, which used to be worth between $90 million and $300 million, certainly helped create piracy. And it is certainly ironic how "nations contributing warships to anti-piracy efforts are in some cases directly linked to the foreign fishing vessels." But this does not justify holding over 200 hostages, and perhaps the Kenyan bright side of piracy is suddenly overstated somewhat. Fishing in Kenya is apparently much more significant around Lake Victoria.

Monday, January 11, 2010

The Pak-Af borderland conglomerate II.

This is what I concluded regarding the Khost attack on the CIA outpost at the Chapman base a couple of days ago:
"It seems like the borderland conglomerate as such may have been behind the attack, as the CIA is allegedly demanding the hunting down of, and extradition by, Pakistan of Ilyas Kashmiri, an ex-SSG Afghan hand, ex-Kashmiri, then and now HuJI militant, now anti-Pakistani government operative (a living legend in jihadi circles, essentially), in connection with the bombing, while the Haqqanis and AQ also remain in the limelight."
The link @ "borderland conglomerate" explains what that term entails in my vocabulary.
When even Hakimullah Mehsud appeared beside the Khost bomber I thought it was some confirmation of the above thesis, as beside AQ, the Haqqanis and HuJI, even the TTP became implicated. (Of course Mehsud had to speak from Haqqani land which is something observers tend to forget.)
Now, I may or may not have some additional confirmation regarding the validity of my usage of the term "borderland conglomerate" and the validity of the concept, via Joshua Foust and Acorn, from Pakistan's The News. I am not sure Lashkar-e Zil is a term all of the guys implied would readily use to describe themselves, but, anyway, this article talks about them implying just that. Quote:

"The Lashkar has distinguished itself by carrying out unusual guerrilla operations, like the one targeting the CIA base in Khost. While the LeZ is mainly active in Pakistani tribal areas of North and South Waziristan, Bajaur, Peshawar, Khyber, and Swat in the NWFP, it has already carried but several deadly bombings against the US-led allied forces in the Afghan provinces of Khost, Kabul, Kandahar, Nuristan, Nangahar, Wardak, Paktika, Ghazni and Kunar, killing dozens of people.The sources say the Lashkar-e-Zil mainly consists of Tehrik-e-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP) led by Commander Hakimullah Mehsud, the Azad Kashmir chapter of the Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HUJI) led by Commander Ilyas Kashmiri, and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) led by its jailed leader Akram Lahori, the Afghan Taliban militia led by its Amir Mulla Omar, the Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan (HeI) led by Gulbadin Hikmatyar and the Haqqani militant network."

The funny or not-so-funny thing (function of POV) about the above quote is that it basically says anybody committing anything anywhere might or might not be LeZ. I am this much wiser tonight.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Quote of the day for January 10, 2010

"South Yemen and the United States have only one thing in common: they were the only British colonies that won independence through a guerrilla war and that remained in conflict with their former colonizers for years afterward. Both waged struggles rooted in a political radicalism that prevented any easy reconciliation with the imperial power. The United States seems to have forgotten its early radicalism. (...) It has taken Britain's place as protector and guarantor of the conservative monarchies."

From: Fred Halliday: Proxyland for Cold Warriors. The Nation, May 26, 1984, p.640 (pp.638-640.)
The regime in what used to be South Yemen or the PDRY (People's Democratic Republic of Yemen) was in deep conflict with Saudi Arabia which sought to turn the Yemeni Arab Republic (the "North") into a buffer zone against influence from the South. The conflict with Britain that is referred to in the text was the Dhofari insurgency in Oman, supported by the PDRY, which ended in 1975.
This region altogether was one more battleground of ideas where Marxism and conservatism as well as Islamism clashed, with the U.S. joining the struggle on the anti-Marxist side, supporting the Saudi monarchy, tribes and even madrasa networks, with its Cold War priorities.
This involvement preceded U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, but 1979 was an equally important year for the region of the Yemens. President Carter approved 415 million dollars worth of emergency assistance to "North" Yemen as its conflict, including cross-border insurgencies, intensified with South Yemen (in the same year when support to Afghan insurgents, of about 500,000 dollars, was approved by him, during the summer).
Yemen clearly matters, and what is happening there does have significance. As these random historical reflexions show, it has significance connected to Afghanistan even, especially as there is a myriad of personal connections through the Afghan jihad (beyond the Yemeni origins of Osama bin Laden's family) which globalised the fight for Yemeni Islamists, too (see, merely for illustration, for example Abdul Majeed al-Zindani's interesting story here - he was in Afghanistan/Pakistan till 1987, as he states in this interview, and was an important associate for bin Laden at least up till then; and he is founder and leader of the Iman University*, or the University of Faith, in Sana'a, and also one of the leaders of the Islah Party).
But those who point out that AQAP seems to receive an improportionate amount of attention because of the failed Detroit plane bomber, compared to AQ core that has just successfully attacked a major CIA outpost in Khost, Afghanistan, certainly seem to be right.
* John Walker Lindh as well as Anwar al-Awlaki used to attend this institution in the past.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Flynn's presentation: the state of COIN in Afghanistan

Here are my quick notes on (the head of U.S. military intelligence in Afghanistan) Major General Michael Flynn's presentation, titled State of the Insurgency : Trends, Intentions and Objectives (I got to it via the Danger Room). I will go backward through the slides.
- If you look at the last slide, you could be forgiven for thinking that the aim of the U.S. COIN campaign in Afghanistan is to beat the IED threat. In fact this is not the case, as the last three slides were shown to the audience, on the occasion, after a Q/A session, which came at the end of the general assessment of the insurgency by Flynn.
- Since most casualties are the result of IEDs, however, and since IEDs require Ammonium Nitrate (AN), diesel fuel, aluminium powder, sugar and fuel oil which are the lethal ingredients counter-IED efforts need to find the antidose for, a ban on the selling of AN is proposed on Slide 10 as a crucial ingredient of military success. It is concluded that since AN "accounts for only five percent of legitimate fertiliser use," and yet is used 85% of the time in homemade IEDs, the ban would be necessary and it would have minimal effect on agriculture. My observation: one could also presume that illegitimate AN use would not be particularly severely affected, either.
- Slide 9: 2005 was not so clearly the year of change in terms of IEDs used as it was for suicide bombings. Numbers grow steadily from 2004. The year 2007 seems to be an interesting break in the pattern, as indicated, as that was when an observable switch took place from the predominant use of military ordnance to the use of largely AN- or fertiliser-based bombs.
- On Slide 5 the point is made that "GIRoA weakness enables insurgent strength." I really want to see the more consistent use of an alternative: "International Community/GIRoA weakness enables insurgent strength." Would it not be more simple?
- Slide 3 shows, among other things, the area where the IMU is said to operate. It is interesting to see them shown in Uruzgan and Zabul. They seem to be organised on top of existing Taliban infrastructure mostly, but they are shown as operating on their own in what seems to be Faryab province. I am not sure what to make of this, as map-colouring could be, well, just map-colouring in the end, as opposed to empirical reality. I am not sure what to make of indication that Hizb-i-Islami's Khalis faction is said to operate in the east in some parts (the yellow patch on the map).
Anyway, I am including said map below.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Las Casas v. Kilcullen

Foreign Policy ran this article some time ago, and I only noticed it now. In it, the author is arguing that since small terrorist groups still tend to turn towards the Big Terrorist Group which is al-Qaida, network theory should tell us that killing the Big Terrorist Group would make the small terrorist groups more dangerous. If only the small terrorist groups would realise this and make themselves more dangerous by not turning to the Big Terrorist Group for a change! Lucky for us they don't! So let them aggregate! (Essentially as opposed to the disaggregation that David Kilcullen is arguing for as the right global strategy - hence the title of my post).
Things like this are argued there, at least implicitly. But do read the article to see if I am right with this interpretation, anyway.
I have just a final remark in criticism. If the only reason Afghanistan's fate is acknowledged to matter from a U.S. perspective is that al-Qaida could return there one day, then why exactly would a U.S. decision-maker opt for following las Casas' guidance and let it be, provided there is a chance to finish it off?
(P.S. Some probably do not realise the effect carelessly recycled second-hand ideas can have on the ideological aspect of taking on terrorism and on global public support for it. Consider what thoughts people get reading dailies in their own languages with articles titled "U.S. foreign policy expert says the U.S. should keep alive al-Qaida.")

The Khost attack on the CIA

Now that there is so much written about the bloody attack by Jordanian Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-Balawi on the CIA agents operating from FOB Chapman (see here and here) as well as on what can be assumed to be retaliatory drone attacks (see here), much of the attention seems to zero in on how CIA agents may have decided to personally meet with their supposed AQ double agent, "inherited" as he was, for the very first time, not even shying away from meeting him with so many of them there at the same time, getting conveniently near to someone who was only looking to apply a very kinetic kind of effect on them. An anonymous intelligence source is suggesting this may have been because he already gave information that was sufficient for kills in the past for the CIA, thus establishing a track record of reliability.
But there is an aspect to the story that is not thought through so much, in the press reports at least. How would an AQ "brick" suddenly decide he should go and meet CIA operatives deep in the middle of Haqqani land? How does he feel safe doing so? How does he think he will not be noticed or monitored rather? How can one assume he would have felt safe to go back after this meeting to his AQ associates?
(As an interesting aside, one may add that the Taliban have also claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that an ANA member committed the attack. H/t 2 Jihadica.)
Update: it seems like the borderland conglomerate as such may have been behind the attack, as the CIA is allegedly demanding the hunting down of, and extradition by, Pakistan of Ilyas Kashmiri, an ex-SSG Afghan hand, ex-Kashmiri, then and now HuJI militant, now anti-Pakistani government operative (a living legend in jihadi circles, essentially), in connection with the bombing, while the Haqqanis and AQ also remain in the limelight.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

The TTP murals

Here is video of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan's murals from Nawaz Kot, South Waziristan, if all is true. Read the background here, but in fact CNN's report is just late follow up to previous Pakistani news reports (like this) about the "jannat" or artificial paradise that was allegedly set up for training children for combat roles (including suicide bombing) by the TTP, apparently. It is really fascinating to read stories like this, or see reports like this. They show how much change radically transformed circumstances have pushed through people now using the "taliban" brand post-2001, including those belonging to a spawn organisation like the TTP, or "the taliban of the mountains" as they refer to themselves sometimes, as shown in this video. My personal reflection on this: there were different times when I would object, to a degree, to the idea of discussing Pakistan/Afghanistan within the child soldier discourse - just because teenage boys would also wield AK-47s among the "jihadis," growing up to be men in the fight against the Soviets and the regime they were backing, in the 1980s. In the context of news like this, however, those objections disappear in me.
I would love to embed the video but in its embedded form it wouldn't play in some browsers. So anyway, go to CNN, watch it there.

One man's pirate is another man's green peace warrior (corrected)

Somali piracy started largely as a grassroots response to illegal fishing in Somali waters and the dumping of all sorts of waste (possibly including nuclear waste) in Somali waters. I have already commented on why this might be interesting for the sometimes embarrassingly ideological and actually dumb discourse about failed states.
Now, what happened today is that Greenpeace the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society tried, with their "batboat," a high-speed trimaran, to make a point against whale-hunting, and had their boat rammed by Japanese whalers in response, either accidentally or not (not up to me to judge this here). It is interesting to look at the side of the batboat where you can discover even the skull and bones (look for it on this picture).
I am including this here just to make a little (more) fun of this this dud of an FP post again, I have to admit. The point of the author there, in the cited post, was essentially that it is funny to see Somali pirates talk like Greenpeace sometimes. Well, now, Greenpeace the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society is taking a leaf of pirates' book sometimes, apparently. Which, from me, is not a general value judgement about either pirates or the .Greenpeace. the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society.
Correction: I made a mistake here. It is small excuse that I was misled by the first news of this incident which I heard on TV. I quickly wanted to post on it, and I did not do sufficient fact-checking. I was overinterested in the Somali analogy to do justice to Greenpeace who were not involved in this incident and who are in fact not approving of the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society's direct tactics and were thus misrepresented by me as well. My apologies for that. The title of the post remains as it is, although it could also be changed to "One man's pirate is another man's sea shepherd." And now I do note that a sea shepherd is no green peace warrior of Greenpeace in fact.

Monday, January 4, 2010

On Yemen-related affairs, back from holiday

I went off-line for the last couple of days. Then, when I returned, I looked first to find out about Yemen-related developments. Gordon Brown is advocating a big summit meeting about Yemen, probably to give Yemenis and others in the broader Middle East and the Arab world the impression that big global summits with lots of behind-doors meetings and conspiracies of wishful thinkers are in fact governing their countries. As to the Obama administration's reaction: "Washington this year will more than double the $67 million in counterterrorism aid that it provided Yemen in 2009." That money is largely for equipment and financial assistance to CT-related tasks, besides the Pentagon's own so-called 1206 funds, to a country that supposedly would pay for this itself if it would be such a pressing problem for them. The central, rampant belief around Washington is firmly held in what I sometimes call the dual concept of aided attention (DUCAAT): this theory posits on the one hand that other governments ought to be given money to pay attention to problems, and, on the other hand, that if more money is given to these governments to pay attention to said problems the attention they pay "in return" will also grow, in a linear relationship. In other words, really crazy global governance continues (though I have to say my worst fears, while away, were that somebody might have cooked up plans for a larger-scale training mission to rebuild Yemeni security forces).
The interesting thing is that all this is justified with regards to Yemen, because someone from Nigeria, possibly with a helper of "Indian" appearance, tried to bomb an airplane. Eyewitnesses are saying that the helper was there, possibly even in Detroit, where US Customs and Border Protection may have detained him; while the Dutch counterterrorist agency is claiming that they are either all wrong or lied as "their investigation 'into Abdulmutallab's passport pokes holes in the theory that the alleged bomber had help evading security.' "
One would like to see a bit clearer before diving into strategising over what to do with Yemen, right? Well, not exactly. Of course the argument could be made that something different should be done about Yemen in any case. But not on the basis of the Detroit plot for now. And not (or not only) along the lines of DUCAAT, because that is not really different from what we have had before.
Update: as far as the seeing clearer about Detroit part is concerned, in this eyewitness account one of the passangers on board that plane to Detroit states that there was a man detained in Detroit, but probably not the man of Indian appearance who was seen in Amsterdam by the Haskells. The man statedly detained in Detroit was apparently of Middle Eastern origin. I found the video via Kurt Haskell's post at his wife's blog. That crowdsourcing and social media ecosystem blabla notwithstanding, information is still very slow to emerge about this case which still looks interesting enough to me to warrant some inspired reporting and analysis.
As far as the question of what to do WRT Yemen beyond (and possibly instead of) DUCAAT: here is Gregory D. Johnsen's take as a list of five basic recommendations from December 31 - including challenging ones, e.g. that U.S. diplomats should not abstain from a khat chew every now and then, rejecting Yemenese khat as a matter of (stupid) principle; I say this is a challenge given that Western embassies are instead busy closing by now.
Update (January 6) About Detroit, Reuters reports: "Some of the passengers on the plane had said they saw him (Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab - P.M.) accompanied at the gate in Amsterdam by an older, well-dressed Indian or Pakistani man. But the review of more than 200 hours of video showed no one with him, the officials said."