What is state failure? See my conceptualisation of state failure on the right flank below.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Pakistan, the state of play

As the Pakistani Army is roughing up South Waziristan:
- While the Obama administration is hedging its bet searching for the right strategy, the purpose of which is to exit Afghanistan stabilise Afghanistan, Pakistan is not taking on Hafiz Gul Bahadur's, Maulvi Nazir's and the Haqqanis' forces, according to Time Magazine. North Waziristan is still a safe haven, for example.
- Regarding whether the Taliban will be able to sustain their tempo of operations in the future, an interesting question is what the impact of this development could be, should we believe it actually occurred. Mullah Omar and some of the Quetta shura have relocated to mega-city Karachi, according to the Washington Times, which references Bruce Riedel, for example, who says Omar was spotted in Karachi recently. This could reduce (or make more cumbersome) the shura's control over the insurgency's local commanders on the Afghan battlefield. But credibility is an issue simply on the basis that a threat of drone strikes seems to be questionable explanation regarding why Quetta would have suddenly become inhospitable to the very rarely spotted all-time leader of the Taliban.

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