What is state failure? See my conceptualisation of state failure on the right flank below.

Monday, September 7, 2009

The northern front

I like it when some of the intel work's findings gradually leak out to the press after a while. McClatchy has a recent article about the re-emergence of the Taliban brand in the north. It claims:
"The Taliban infiltration into Kunduz and Baghlan began 18 months ago with the return from Pakistan of insurgent leaders who ran the provinces during the Taliban rule of Afghanistan, U.S. and Afghan officials said. The establishment of the new NATO supply route may be a factor that drew Taliban from the south."
But this is wrong. 18 months ago was around March last year. The deterioration of the situation gradually started back in 2007. Insurgent cells began organising at least already then (but most likely before that). October 2007 saw three IED attacks against the Hungarian PRT in Baghlan province alone. And on October 29 a rocket attack on Pul-i-Khumri came shortly after two ministers left the Hungarian base there. So the next time someone has to write a briefer to someone, these details could be included as well.
In fact, this makes perfect sense. Everybody knew the Salaang Pass had to become an important logistical artery sooner or later, already back then, as the Pakistani bottleneck was problematic already then. And the brains behind the insurgency made careful preparations for this in advance. And by now there is enough of an infastructure established to have a lot of Uzbek fighters sent up there, to these areas.

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