What is state failure? See my conceptualisation of state failure on the right flank below.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Forecasting "state failure," i.e. something: A possible indicator

As you will notice by first glance, this blog is about "state failure." I define the notion of state failure in one particular, peculiar way myself, and you can always read my working definition on the right flank of the blog, if you scroll down for it. But terms like "state failure" and "failed states" refer to not exactly the same thing for others in academia. Some of them in fact do not bother too much to define "state failure" in too exact a way, so you could truly operationalise in research what they mean by it.

In some cases, putting the "state failure" stamp on a country implies that it's a "bad, bad, bad" place to live. For whatever reason and for potentially all sorts of reasons - of which brief or exhaustive lists are provided in some cases.

The really problematic aspect of this is that there is even a debate among scholars about how state failure can be accurately forecast. And some of the participants of this debate are of the creed that even come up with quantitative models to pull this off.

But many do so even while lacking a truly exact definition.

So here is a very scientific statement from me that is certainly up to the scientific standard of prediciting undefined, bad, bad, bad developments coming up, using some sort of indicator.

Read this sort of article, in the leading Pakistani daily, founded by Mohammad Ali Jinnah himself. Take your time to understand its argumentation, its not-so-coherent premises and so on. And voilá, you will know Pakistan is in trouble. The bad news is, even others around it share this situation with it.

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