What is state failure? See my conceptualisation of state failure on the right flank below.

Saturday, January 31, 2009

Centering on a new Afghan security...

For reasons potentially specified later on I started another blog over at this address. I will write there a lot, but this is not very interesting for the readership over here. I'm writing there in Hungarian - that's why. But State Failure will not be neglected as I'll always come back here to at least sum up what I said over at Risk911. The thematic overlap makes that perfectly convenient. Though in some cases I might find this site simply the more suitable forum for voicing an opinion on this or that.

So, in my first post over there at the other site I wrote of CNAS' recent policy brief, signed by Nathaniel Fick, John Nagl, Dave Kilcullen and Vikram Singh.

Give it a read, since it's brief, and not bad.

It was the kind of source I liked referring to for starters over at my Hungarian blog, directed as it is at a mostly Hungarian audience. Deals with why we are there and stuff like that.
  • It names avoiding a full regional meltdown and a counter-sanctuary counter-terrorist policy as key aims in Afghanistan, which I do not argue with.
  • It warns how certain tasks, such as counternarcotics as is implicitly suggested in the given context, can only be handled in a different time-frame than counter-sanctuary COIN and CT. That is again something I don't argue with at all.
  • I'm slightly puzzled by the line that the two "no"s are what can provide us with the "yes" on which an exit strategy depends. I would risk saying that planning on "exiting" is something that might make the situation worse, and that not planning to exit could be an important part of the solution.
  • Finally, I had fun, rather lengthily, at the way the CNAS brief named power structures that hold sway outside Kabul "religious" and "tribal." Perhaps that could be fun even from, say, Rashid Dostum's perspective - might give him a laugh while he's having some more difficult times. (Although the latest rumours tell us he's not really exiled to Turkey, he only went there the last time around to visit wife et al.)
Anyway, that's what I came up with over at the other site, which is now officially announced, hooray and all that. Feel free to try your luck deciphering Hungarian words. Long live Majaristan!

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