What is state failure? See my conceptualisation of state failure on the right flank below.

Friday, July 11, 2008

EBOs with effect accelerators

After the Serena Hotel bombing in Kabul I had a theory that somebody had launched a campaign of effects-based operations to compensate for the relatively weak results of the Afghan insurgency itself (or to give it a boost, whichever narrative you prefer - this is not the point here). After the February 17-18 attacks in Kandahar, which killed an important local militia/police commander, Abdul Hakim Jan, as well as scores of other people, I had the theory that that somebody was coordinating EBOs with other attacks of a different scale (not necessarily with less impact). Working on creating a critical impulse, using "effect accelerators" of sorts. I came to that conclusion after it was revealed just in those days in February that somebody got way too close to firing off an entire salvo of ground-to-air missiles at the logistics capital of ISAF RC-South, Kandahar Airfield.
Now, as you know, on July 7, there was an attack against the Indian embassy in Kabul, killing India's military attaché and a political advisor - possibly the station chief of Indian intelligence, although this is just speculation. It also killed a lot of other people so that the Indian Embassy wouldn't be a favoured location for any event in the future, one guesses.
So somebody was working very hard on frustrating India in Afghanistan.
India's flagship Afghan construction project, the Zaranj-Delaram highway has been attacked multiple times in the past. It's always an expectable target, but when I see it targeted just a day after the bloody embassy bombing, I see it as significant. It seems to fit the pattern I've just described.
"A bomb was found on a bus transporting 12 Indian road workers in Afghanistan Tuesday, a governor said, a day after a suicide attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul killed 41 people. The workers, including engineers, had noticed a "suspicious package" on the bus as they were travelling to work in the southwestern province of Nimroz, provincial governor Ghulam Dastgir Azad told AFP."

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